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Newington Youth vs Banbridge Town — League #561 2026

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
CANC
00:00
Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
3/13/2020League #561League #561 · Round 18Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Newington Youth47%
×Draw21%
Banbridge Town32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newington Youth
2.07
Banbridge Town
1.70

Newington Youth creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

creates per match

Newington Youth
1.62
Banbridge Town
1.48

allows per match

Newington Youth
1.92
Banbridge Town
2.52

finishing

Newington Youth+0.00on par
Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newington Youth ↓

Banbridge Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Newington Youth or draw
68%
Newington Youth or Banbridge Town
79%
Draw or Banbridge Town
53%

Winning margin

Newington Youth wins by 2+
27%
Banbridge Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Newington Youth 1+ goals
87%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
61%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
34%
Banbridge Town 1+ goals
82%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
51%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Newington Youth (draw refunded)
59%
Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newington Youth at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Banbridge Town away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newington Youth attack 1.62 + Banbridge Town defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.07

Banbridge Town attack 1.48 + Newington Youth defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Newington Youth scores more
47%
level
21%
Banbridge Town scores more
32%

Newington Youth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Newington Youth host Banbridge Town

March 13, 2020: Newington Youth take on Banbridge Town in League #561. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Newington Youth host Banbridge Town at Seaview.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.