Dekedaha 1–4 ES Tunis: Result & Stats

Dekedaha

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

ES Tunis

9/15/2024

CAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dekedaha11%

×Draw14%

ES Tunis75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DekedahaExpected goals in this matchES Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

3.01

Dekedaha

1.11

ES Tunis

3.01

ES Tunis creates 171% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 40 away

1.33

creates per match

1.02

5.00

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Dekedaha

1.33

ES Tunis

1.02

allows per match

Dekedaha

5.00

ES Tunis

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dekedaha+0.00on par

ES Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dekedaha ↓

ES Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Dekedaha or draw

25%

Dekedaha or ES Tunis

86%

Draw or ES Tunis

89%

Winning margin

Dekedaha wins by 2+

4%

ES Tunis wins by 2+

55%

Team goals

Dekedaha 1+ goals

67%

Dekedaha 2+ goals

30%

Dekedaha 3+ goals

10%

ES Tunis 1+ goals

95%

ES Tunis 2+ goals

80%

ES Tunis 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Dekedaha (draw refunded)

13%

ES Tunis (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dekedaha at home — creates 1.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

ES Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dekedaha attack 1.33 + ES Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

ES Tunis attack 1.02 + Dekedaha defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Dekedaha scores more

11%

level

14%

ES Tunis scores more

75%

ES Tunis at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff