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Dekani vs Slovan Ljubljana — 2. SNL 2019

Dekani
Dekani
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
A. Sculac 77'
F. Cordas 32', 24', 13'
D. Hoti 27'
M. Serbec 7'
5/10/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dekani45%
×Draw26%
Slovan Ljubljana29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dekani
1.48
Slovan Ljubljana
1.14

Dekani creates 30% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dekani
1.36
Slovan Ljubljana
1.00

allows per match

Dekani
1.28
Slovan Ljubljana
1.60

finishing

Dekani+0.00on par
Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dekani ↓

Slovan Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dekani or draw
71%
Dekani or Slovan Ljubljana
74%
Draw or Slovan Ljubljana
55%

Winning margin

Dekani wins by 2+
22%
Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dekani 1+ goals
77%
Dekani 2+ goals
43%
Dekani 3+ goals
19%
Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals
68%
Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals
32%
Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dekani (draw refunded)
61%
Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dekani at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Slovan Ljubljana away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dekani attack 1.36 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.00 + Dekani defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dekani scores more
45%
level
26%
Slovan Ljubljana scores more
29%

Dekani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dekani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Serbec
13'
F. Cordas
24'
F. Cordas
27'
D. Hoti
32'
F. Cordas
77'
A. Sculac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. SNL: Dekani 5–1 Slovan Ljubljana

Dekani beat Slovan Ljubljana 5-1 in 2. SNL on May 10, 2026.

Goals: M. Serbec (7'), F. Cordas (13', 24', 32'), D. Hoti (27'), A. Sculac (77').