Dekani 5–1 Dravograd: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Dekani

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Dravograd

A. Zyba 88'

M. Babič 86' (pen)

L. Stepančič 69', 44'

M. Verunica 21'

M. Verstovšek 34'

10/19/2019

2. SNL · Round 14Igrišče Ivan Gregorič

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dekani60%

×Draw20%

Dravograd20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DekaniExpected goals in this matchDravograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.19

Dekani

2.18

Dravograd

1.19

Dekani creates 83% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 10 away

1.36

creates per match

1.10

1.28

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Dekani

1.36

Dravograd

1.10

allows per match

Dekani

1.28

Dravograd

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dekani+0.00on par

Dravograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dekani ↓

Dravograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Dekani or draw

80%

Dekani or Dravograd

80%

Draw or Dravograd

40%

Winning margin

Dekani wins by 2+

37%

Dravograd wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dekani 1+ goals

89%

Dekani 2+ goals

64%

Dekani 3+ goals

37%

Dravograd 1+ goals

70%

Dravograd 2+ goals

33%

Dravograd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dekani (draw refunded)

75%

Dravograd (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dekani at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Dravograd away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dekani attack 1.36 + Dravograd defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.18

Dravograd attack 1.10 + Dekani defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dekani scores more

60%

level

20%

Dravograd scores more

20%

Dekani at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dekani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

M. Verunica

34'

M. Verstovšek

44'

L. Stepančič

60'

D. Bevk← L. Brzin

64'

A. Mujkić← S. Borghi

69'

L. Stepančič

72'

S. Dobaj← N. Pečnik

73'

D. Živanović← L. Stepančič

77'

A. Vošnjak← E. Petek

81'

A. Ahmetović← M. Verunica

86'

M. BabičPenalty

88'

A. Zyba

Dekani

Dravograd

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Verunica

⚽

Zyba

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: V. Gregorović

64'▲A. Mujkić←▼S. Borghi

73'▲D. Živanović←▼L. Stepančič

81'▲A. Ahmetović←▼M. Verunica

Dekani substitutes

MujkićŽivanovićAhmetovićVitezicaMatoševićCvetkovičPerhavec

Manager: B. Kus

60'▲D. Bevk←▼L. Brzin

72'▲S. Dobaj←▼N. Pečnik

77'▲A. Vošnjak←▼E. Petek

Dravograd substitutes

BevkDobajVošnjakValenteSmrtnikStefanovićRožej

2. SNL: Dekani 5–1 Dravograd

Dekani beat Dravograd 5-1 in 2. SNL on October 19, 2019.

Goals: M. Verunica (21'), M. Verstovšek (34'), L. Stepančič (44', 69'), M. Babič (86' pen), A. Zyba (88').

The match was played at Igrišče Ivan Gregorič in Dekani.

Dekani vs Dravograd — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Dekani 5–1 Dravograd