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Dekani vs Brda Dobrovo — 2. SNL 2019

Dekani
Dekani
CANC
14:30
Brda Dobrovo
Brda Dobrovo
4/11/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dekani53%
×Draw23%
Brda Dobrovo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dekani
1.83
Brda Dobrovo
1.14

Dekani creates 61% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 23 away

creates per match

Dekani
1.36
Brda Dobrovo
1.00

allows per match

Dekani
1.28
Brda Dobrovo
2.30

finishing

Dekani+0.00on par
Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dekani ↓

Brda Dobrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dekani or draw
76%
Dekani or Brda Dobrovo
77%
Draw or Brda Dobrovo
47%

Winning margin

Dekani wins by 2+
30%
Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dekani 1+ goals
84%
Dekani 2+ goals
54%
Dekani 3+ goals
28%
Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals
68%
Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals
32%
Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dekani (draw refunded)
69%
Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dekani at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Brda Dobrovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dekani attack 1.36 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.83

Brda Dobrovo attack 1.00 + Dekani defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dekani scores more
53%
level
23%
Brda Dobrovo scores more
24%

Dekani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dekani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dekani vs Brda Dobrovo — Match Preview

Dekani face Brda Dobrovo on April 11, 2021 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.