Deisenhofen 1–1 Pipinsried: Result & Stats

Deisenhofen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pipinsried

11/11/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 20Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Deisenhofen44%

×Draw26%

Pipinsried30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeisenhofenExpected goals in this matchPipinsried

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.19

Deisenhofen

1.49

Pipinsried

1.19

Deisenhofen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

1.74

creates per match

1.35

1.02

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Deisenhofen

1.74

Pipinsried

1.35

allows per match

Deisenhofen

1.02

Pipinsried

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deisenhofen+0.00on par

Pipinsried+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deisenhofen ↓

Pipinsried →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deisenhofen or draw

70%

Deisenhofen or Pipinsried

74%

Draw or Pipinsried

56%

Winning margin

Deisenhofen wins by 2+

22%

Pipinsried wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deisenhofen 1+ goals

77%

Deisenhofen 2+ goals

44%

Deisenhofen 3+ goals

19%

Pipinsried 1+ goals

70%

Pipinsried 2+ goals

33%

Pipinsried 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deisenhofen (draw refunded)

59%

Pipinsried (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deisenhofen at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Pipinsried away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deisenhofen attack 1.74 + Pipinsried defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Pipinsried attack 1.35 + Deisenhofen defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deisenhofen scores more

44%

level

26%

Pipinsried scores more

30%

Deisenhofen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deisenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff