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Deisenhofen vs Nordlingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Deisenhofen
Deisenhofen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nordlingen
Nordlingen
Y. Yilmaz 63'
B. Jost 28'
P. Rauser 53'
10/5/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 15Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Deisenhofen57%
×Draw20%
Nordlingen24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deisenhofen
2.33
Nordlingen
1.46

Deisenhofen creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Deisenhofen
1.91
Nordlingen
1.75

allows per match

Deisenhofen
1.18
Nordlingen
2.75

finishing

Deisenhofen+0.00on par
Nordlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deisenhofen ↓

Nordlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Deisenhofen or draw
76%
Deisenhofen or Nordlingen
80%
Draw or Nordlingen
43%

Winning margin

Deisenhofen wins by 2+
35%
Nordlingen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deisenhofen 1+ goals
90%
Deisenhofen 2+ goals
67%
Deisenhofen 3+ goals
41%
Nordlingen 1+ goals
77%
Nordlingen 2+ goals
43%
Nordlingen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Deisenhofen (draw refunded)
71%
Nordlingen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deisenhofen at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Nordlingen away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deisenhofen attack 1.91 + Nordlingen defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.33

Nordlingen attack 1.75 + Deisenhofen defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deisenhofen scores more
57%
level
20%
Nordlingen scores more
24%

Deisenhofen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deisenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
B. Jost
53'
P. Rauser
63'
Y. Yilmaz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Deisenhofen 2–1 Nordlingen

Deisenhofen beat Nordlingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on October 5, 2024.

Goals: B. Jost (28'), P. Rauser (53'), Y. Yilmaz (63').

The match was played at Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1 in Deisenhofen.