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Deisenhofen vs Kottern — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Deisenhofen
Deisenhofen
FT
5 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kottern
Kottern
T. Seidl 90+4', 49'
Y. Yilmaz 85'
N. Semmler 62'
M. Vodermeier 59'
M. Vodermeier 76' (OG)
K. Haug 22'
A. Speiser 14'
4/5/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 28Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Deisenhofen52%
×Draw21%
Kottern28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deisenhofen
2.21
Kottern
1.59

Deisenhofen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Deisenhofen
1.91
Kottern
2.00

allows per match

Deisenhofen
1.18
Kottern
2.50

finishing

Deisenhofen+0.00on par
Kottern+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deisenhofen ↓

Kottern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Deisenhofen or draw
72%
Deisenhofen or Kottern
79%
Draw or Kottern
48%

Winning margin

Deisenhofen wins by 2+
31%
Kottern wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deisenhofen 1+ goals
89%
Deisenhofen 2+ goals
65%
Deisenhofen 3+ goals
38%
Kottern 1+ goals
80%
Kottern 2+ goals
47%
Kottern 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Deisenhofen (draw refunded)
65%
Kottern (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deisenhofen at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Kottern away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deisenhofen attack 1.91 + Kottern defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kottern attack 2.00 + Deisenhofen defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deisenhofen scores more
52%
level
21%
Kottern scores more
28%

Deisenhofen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deisenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Speiser
22'
K. Haug
49'
T. Seidl
59'
M. Vodermeier
62'
N. Semmler
76'
M. VodermeierOwn goal
85'
Y. Yilmaz
90+4'
T. Seidl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Deisenhofen 5–3 Kottern

Deisenhofen beat Kottern 5-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 5, 2025.

Goals: A. Speiser (14'), K. Haug (22'), T. Seidl (49', 90+4'), M. Vodermeier (59', 76' o.g.), N. Semmler (62'), Y. Yilmaz (85').

The match was played at Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1 in Deisenhofen.