Deisenhofen 4–0 Kirchheimer SC: Result & Stats

Deisenhofen

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kirchheimer SC

3/23/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 26Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Deisenhofen65%

×Draw20%

Kirchheimer SC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeisenhofenExpected goals in this matchKirchheimer SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.86

Deisenhofen

2.04

Kirchheimer SC

0.86

Deisenhofen creates 137% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

1.74

creates per match

0.71

1.02

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Deisenhofen

1.74

Kirchheimer SC

0.71

allows per match

Deisenhofen

1.02

Kirchheimer SC

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deisenhofen+0.00on par

Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deisenhofen ↓

Kirchheimer SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deisenhofen or draw

85%

Deisenhofen or Kirchheimer SC

80%

Draw or Kirchheimer SC

35%

Winning margin

Deisenhofen wins by 2+

40%

Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deisenhofen 1+ goals

87%

Deisenhofen 2+ goals

60%

Deisenhofen 3+ goals

33%

Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals

58%

Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals

21%

Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deisenhofen (draw refunded)

81%

Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deisenhofen at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Kirchheimer SC away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deisenhofen attack 1.74 + Kirchheimer SC defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kirchheimer SC attack 0.71 + Deisenhofen defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Deisenhofen scores more

65%

level

20%

Kirchheimer SC scores more

15%

Deisenhofen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Deisenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff