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Deisenhofen vs Heimstetten — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Deisenhofen
Deisenhofen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Heimstetten
Heimstetten
9/20/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 11Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Deisenhofen48%
×Draw24%
Heimstetten28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deisenhofen
1.75
Heimstetten
1.29

Deisenhofen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

creates per match

Deisenhofen
1.74
Heimstetten
1.57

allows per match

Deisenhofen
1.02
Heimstetten
1.76

finishing

Deisenhofen+0.00on par
Heimstetten+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deisenhofen ↓

Heimstetten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Deisenhofen or draw
72%
Deisenhofen or Heimstetten
76%
Draw or Heimstetten
52%

Winning margin

Deisenhofen wins by 2+
26%
Heimstetten wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deisenhofen 1+ goals
83%
Deisenhofen 2+ goals
52%
Deisenhofen 3+ goals
25%
Heimstetten 1+ goals
72%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
37%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deisenhofen (draw refunded)
63%
Heimstetten (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deisenhofen at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Heimstetten away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.76 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deisenhofen attack 1.74 + Heimstetten defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Heimstetten attack 1.57 + Deisenhofen defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deisenhofen scores more
48%
level
24%
Heimstetten scores more
28%

Deisenhofen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deisenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deisenhofen vs Heimstetten

Deisenhofen beat Heimstetten 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1 in Deisenhofen.