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Deisenhofen vs Garching — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Deisenhofen
Deisenhofen
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Garching
Garching
10/21/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 17Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deisenhofen58%
×Draw22%
Garching21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deisenhofen
1.98
Garching
1.10

Deisenhofen creates 80% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

creates per match

Deisenhofen
1.74
Garching
1.18

allows per match

Deisenhofen
1.02
Garching
2.21

finishing

Deisenhofen+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deisenhofen ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Deisenhofen or draw
79%
Deisenhofen or Garching
78%
Draw or Garching
42%

Winning margin

Deisenhofen wins by 2+
34%
Garching wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deisenhofen 1+ goals
86%
Deisenhofen 2+ goals
59%
Deisenhofen 3+ goals
31%
Garching 1+ goals
67%
Garching 2+ goals
30%
Garching 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deisenhofen (draw refunded)
74%
Garching (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deisenhofen at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Garching away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deisenhofen attack 1.74 + Garching defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.98

Garching attack 1.18 + Deisenhofen defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deisenhofen scores more
58%
level
22%
Garching scores more
21%

Deisenhofen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deisenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Deisenhofen 4–2 Garching

Deisenhofen beat Garching 4-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Deisenhofen - Platz 1 in Deisenhofen.