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Deinze vs K. Lierse S.K. — League #145 2026

Deinze
Deinze
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
K. Lierse S.K.
K. Lierse S.K.
1/19/2024League #145League #145 · Round 18Dakota Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Deinze56%
×Draw22%
K. Lierse S.K.21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deinze
1.88
K. Lierse S.K.
1.06

Deinze creates 77% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Deinze
1.88
K. Lierse S.K.
0.75

allows per match

Deinze
1.38
K. Lierse S.K.
1.88

finishing

Deinze+0.00on par
K. Lierse S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deinze ↓

K. Lierse S.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deinze or draw
79%
Deinze or K. Lierse S.K.
78%
Draw or K. Lierse S.K.
44%

Winning margin

Deinze wins by 2+
33%
K. Lierse S.K. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deinze 1+ goals
85%
Deinze 2+ goals
56%
Deinze 3+ goals
29%
K. Lierse S.K. 1+ goals
65%
K. Lierse S.K. 2+ goals
29%
K. Lierse S.K. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deinze (draw refunded)
73%
K. Lierse S.K. (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deinze at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

K. Lierse S.K. away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deinze attack 1.88 + K. Lierse S.K. defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.88

K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.75 + Deinze defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deinze scores more
56%
level
22%
K. Lierse S.K. scores more
21%

Deinze at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deinze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deinze vs K. Lierse S.K.

Deinze beat K. Lierse S.K. 4-0 in League #145 on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Dakota Arena in Deinze.