Degerfors IF 1–2 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dalkurd FF

5/21/2019

Superettan · Round 9Stora Valla (Degerfors)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Degerfors IF54%

×Draw23%

Dalkurd FF22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.07

Degerfors IF

1.80

Dalkurd FF

1.07

Degerfors IF creates 68% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 49 away

1.93

creates per match

0.98

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Degerfors IF

1.93

Dalkurd FF

0.98

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.17

Dalkurd FF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

78%

Degerfors IF or Dalkurd FF

77%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

46%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

31%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

83%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

54%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

27%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

66%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

29%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

71%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.93 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Degerfors IF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

54%

level

23%

Dalkurd FF scores more

22%

Degerfors IF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff