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Degerfors IF vs AFC Eskilstuna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
D. Campos 24'
2/3/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Degerfors IF64%
×Draw23%
AFC Eskilstuna13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.75
AFC Eskilstuna
0.63

Degerfors IF creates 178% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.83
AFC Eskilstuna
0.33

allows per match

Degerfors IF
0.92
AFC Eskilstuna
1.67

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
87%
Degerfors IF or AFC Eskilstuna
77%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
36%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
37%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
83%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
52%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
25%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
47%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
13%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
83%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.83 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.33 + Degerfors IF defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
64%
level
23%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
13%

Degerfors IF at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
D. Campos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Degerfors IF 1–0 AFC Eskilstuna

Degerfors IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 3, 2023.

Goals: D. Campos (24').

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.