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Defensores Unidos vs Ituzaingó — Primera C 2018

Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
FT
1 – 0
Ituzaingó
Ituzaingó
9/24/2017Primera CPrimera C · Round 5Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Defensores Unidos42%
×Draw33%
Ituzaingó25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores Unidos
1.02
Ituzaingó
0.72

Defensores Unidos creates 42% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 95 away

creates per match

Defensores Unidos
1.17
Ituzaingó
0.94

allows per match

Defensores Unidos
0.50
Ituzaingó
0.88

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par
Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Ituzaingó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw
75%
Defensores Unidos or Ituzaingó
67%
Draw or Ituzaingó
58%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
16%
Ituzaingó wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
64%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
27%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
8%
Ituzaingó 1+ goals
51%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
16%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
62%
Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Ituzaingó away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 1.17 + Ituzaingó defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ituzaingó attack 0.94 + Defensores Unidos defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more
42%
level
33%
Ituzaingó scores more
25%

Defensores Unidos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Defensores Unidos 1–0 Ituzaingó

Defensores Unidos beat Ituzaingó 1-0 in Primera C on September 24, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox in Zárate, Provincia de Buenos Aires.