Defensores Unidos 1–2 Excursionistas

Defensores Unidos

FT

1 – 2

Excursionistas

2/28/2015

Primera C · Round 3Estadio Defensores Unidos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Defensores Unidos55%

×Draw29%

Excursionistas16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores UnidosExpected goals in this matchExcursionistas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.58

Defensores Unidos

1.33

Excursionistas

0.58

Defensores Unidos creates 129% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

0.67

0.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Defensores Unidos

1.17

Excursionistas

0.67

allows per match

Defensores Unidos

0.50

Excursionistas

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Excursionistas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Excursionistas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw

84%

Defensores Unidos or Excursionistas

71%

Draw or Excursionistas

45%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+

27%

Excursionistas wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals

74%

Defensores Unidos 2+ goals

38%

Defensores Unidos 3+ goals

15%

Excursionistas 1+ goals

44%

Excursionistas 2+ goals

12%

Excursionistas 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)

77%

Excursionistas (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Excursionistas away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 1.17 + Excursionistas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Excursionistas attack 0.67 + Defensores Unidos defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more

55%

level

29%

Excursionistas scores more

16%

Defensores Unidos at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff