Defensores Unidos 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Defensores Unidos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

2/11/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 2Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Defensores Unidos36%

×Draw34%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores UnidosExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.80

Defensores Unidos

0.91

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.80

Defensores Unidos creates 14% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 108 away

0.96

creates per match

0.75

0.85

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Defensores Unidos

0.96

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.75

allows per match

Defensores Unidos

0.85

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw

70%

Defensores Unidos or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

66%

Draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

64%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+

13%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals

60%

Defensores Unidos 2+ goals

23%

Defensores Unidos 3+ goals

6%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals

55%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals

19%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)

55%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.85 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 0.96 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 0.75 + Defensores Unidos defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more

36%

level

34%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more

30%

Defensores Unidos at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff