Defensores Unidos 2–1 Colon Santa Fe

Defensores Unidos

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colon Santa Fe

6/23/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 20Estadio Gigante de Villa Fox

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Defensores Unidos41%

×Draw32%

Colon Santa Fe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores UnidosExpected goals in this matchColon Santa Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.81

Defensores Unidos

1.06

Colon Santa Fe

0.81

Defensores Unidos creates 31% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 48 away

0.96

creates per match

0.77

0.85

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Defensores Unidos

0.96

Colon Santa Fe

0.77

allows per match

Defensores Unidos

0.85

Colon Santa Fe

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores Unidos ↓

Colon Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Defensores Unidos or draw

73%

Defensores Unidos or Colon Santa Fe

68%

Draw or Colon Santa Fe

59%

Winning margin

Defensores Unidos wins by 2+

16%

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Defensores Unidos 1+ goals

65%

Defensores Unidos 2+ goals

29%

Defensores Unidos 3+ goals

9%

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals

56%

Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals

19%

Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)

60%

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Colon Santa Fe away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores Unidos attack 0.96 + Colon Santa Fe defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Colon Santa Fe attack 0.77 + Defensores Unidos defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Defensores Unidos scores more

41%

level

32%

Colon Santa Fe scores more

27%

Defensores Unidos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff