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Defensores de Cambaceres vs Lugano — Primera C 2026

Defensores de Cambaceres
Defensores de Cambaceres
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lugano
Lugano
5/20/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 11Estadio 12 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Defensores de Cambaceres41%
×Draw30%
Lugano29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores de Cambaceres
1.15
Lugano
0.90

Defensores de Cambaceres creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 48 away

creates per match

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.84
Lugano
0.81

allows per match

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.98
Lugano
1.46

finishing

Defensores de Cambaceres+0.00on par
Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Cambaceres ↓

Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Defensores de Cambaceres or draw
71%
Defensores de Cambaceres or Lugano
70%
Draw or Lugano
59%

Winning margin

Defensores de Cambaceres wins by 2+
18%
Lugano wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Defensores de Cambaceres 1+ goals
68%
Defensores de Cambaceres 2+ goals
32%
Defensores de Cambaceres 3+ goals
11%
Lugano 1+ goals
59%
Lugano 2+ goals
23%
Lugano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Cambaceres (draw refunded)
59%
Lugano (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Cambaceres at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

Lugano away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Cambaceres attack 0.84 + Lugano defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.15

Lugano attack 0.81 + Defensores de Cambaceres defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Defensores de Cambaceres scores more
41%
level
30%
Lugano scores more
29%

Defensores de Cambaceres at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Defensores de Cambaceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Defensores de Cambaceres 2–0 Lugano

Defensores de Cambaceres beat Lugano 2-0 in Primera C on May 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio 12 de Octubre in Ensenada, Provincia de Buenos Aires.