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Defensores de Cambaceres vs Juventud Unida — Primera C 2026

Defensores de Cambaceres
Defensores de Cambaceres
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
8/13/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 7Estadio 12 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Defensores de Cambaceres37%
×Draw32%
Juventud Unida31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.97
Juventud Unida
0.87

Defensores de Cambaceres creates 11% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 46 away

creates per match

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.84
Juventud Unida
0.76

allows per match

Defensores de Cambaceres
0.98
Juventud Unida
1.09

finishing

Defensores de Cambaceres+0.00on par
Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Cambaceres ↓

Juventud Unida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Defensores de Cambaceres or draw
69%
Defensores de Cambaceres or Juventud Unida
68%
Draw or Juventud Unida
63%

Winning margin

Defensores de Cambaceres wins by 2+
14%
Juventud Unida wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Defensores de Cambaceres 1+ goals
62%
Defensores de Cambaceres 2+ goals
25%
Defensores de Cambaceres 3+ goals
7%
Juventud Unida 1+ goals
58%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
22%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Cambaceres (draw refunded)
54%
Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Cambaceres at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Cambaceres attack 0.84 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Defensores de Cambaceres defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Defensores de Cambaceres scores more
37%
level
32%
Juventud Unida scores more
31%

Defensores de Cambaceres at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Defensores de Cambaceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defensores de Cambaceres vs Juventud Unida

Juventud Unida beat Defensores de Cambaceres 2-0 in Primera C on August 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio 12 de Octubre in Ensenada, Provincia de Buenos Aires.