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Defensores De Belgrano vs Temperley — Primera Nacional 2026

Defensores De Belgrano
Defensores De Belgrano
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Temperley
Temperley
4/22/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 11Estadio Juan Pasquale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Defensores De Belgrano40%
×Draw33%
Temperley26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores De Belgrano
0.99
Temperley
0.74

Defensores De Belgrano creates 34% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 129 away

creates per match

Defensores De Belgrano
0.97
Temperley
0.78

allows per match

Defensores De Belgrano
0.71
Temperley
1.01

finishing

Defensores De Belgrano+0.00on par
Temperley+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores De Belgrano ↓

Temperley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Defensores De Belgrano or draw
74%
Defensores De Belgrano or Temperley
67%
Draw or Temperley
60%

Winning margin

Defensores De Belgrano wins by 2+
15%
Temperley wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Defensores De Belgrano 1+ goals
63%
Defensores De Belgrano 2+ goals
26%
Defensores De Belgrano 3+ goals
8%
Temperley 1+ goals
52%
Temperley 2+ goals
17%
Temperley 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Defensores De Belgrano (draw refunded)
60%
Temperley (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores De Belgrano at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.71 · 129 matches

Temperley away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.01 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores De Belgrano attack 0.97 + Temperley defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Temperley attack 0.78 + Defensores De Belgrano defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Defensores De Belgrano scores more
40%
level
33%
Temperley scores more
26%

Defensores De Belgrano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Defensores De Belgrano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defensores De Belgrano vs Temperley

Defensores De Belgrano and Temperley drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on April 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Pasquale in Belgrano.