Defensores De Belgrano vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Primera Nacional 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Defensores De Belgrano26%
Ciudad de Bolívar37%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ciudad de Bolívar creates 29% more chances
Season form · 32 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under82
- Over18
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No74
- Yes26
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Defensores De Belgrano ↓
Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Defensores De Belgrano at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.81 · 32 matches
Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Defensores De Belgrano attack 0.75 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63
Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.80 + Defensores De Belgrano defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Ciudad de Bolívar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Defensores De Belgrano substitutes
Head to Head
Deportivo Madryn
Atlanta
Tristan Suarez
Gimnasia Y Tiro
San Miguel
San Martin Tucuman
Deportivo Maipu
Patronato
Colegiales
All Boys
Racing Cordoba
Ferro Carril Oeste
Los Andes
Club Atlético Güemes
Quilmes
Almagro
Arsenal Sarandi
Alvarado
Gimnasia M.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
CA Estudiantes
Deportivo Moron
Gimnasia Jujuy
Temperley
Agropecuario
Chaco For Ever
Chacarita JuniorsDefensores De Belgrano
Nueva Chicago
San Telmo
Atletico Mitre
Almirante Brown
Central Norte
Colon Santa Fe
Talleres Remedios
Defensores UnidosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Defensores De Belgrano host Ciudad de Bolívar on Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Defensores De Belgrano vs Ciudad de Bolívar
Defensores De Belgrano and Ciudad de Bolívar drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on April 12, 2026.
The match was played at Estadio Juan Pasquale in Belgrano.