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Defensores De Belgrano vs Almagro — Primera Nacional 2026

Defensores De Belgrano
Defensores De Belgrano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Almagro
Almagro
2/19/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group A - 3Estadio Juan Pasquale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Defensores De Belgrano45%
×Draw31%
Almagro24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores De Belgrano
1.13
Almagro
0.73

Defensores De Belgrano creates 55% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 127 away

creates per match

Defensores De Belgrano
0.97
Almagro
0.76

allows per match

Defensores De Belgrano
0.71
Almagro
1.28

finishing

Defensores De Belgrano+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores De Belgrano ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Defensores De Belgrano or draw
76%
Defensores De Belgrano or Almagro
69%
Draw or Almagro
55%

Winning margin

Defensores De Belgrano wins by 2+
19%
Almagro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Defensores De Belgrano 1+ goals
68%
Defensores De Belgrano 2+ goals
31%
Defensores De Belgrano 3+ goals
11%
Almagro 1+ goals
52%
Almagro 2+ goals
17%
Almagro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Defensores De Belgrano (draw refunded)
66%
Almagro (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores De Belgrano at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.71 · 129 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores De Belgrano attack 0.97 + Almagro defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Almagro attack 0.76 + Defensores De Belgrano defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Defensores De Belgrano scores more
45%
level
31%
Almagro scores more
24%

Defensores De Belgrano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Defensores De Belgrano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defensores De Belgrano vs Almagro

Defensores De Belgrano beat Almagro 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Pasquale in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.