Defensores de Belgrano VR 0–0 Sol de América

Defensores de Belgrano VR

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sol de América

7/27/2024

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Round - 2Estadio Salomón Boeseldín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR48%

×Draw30%

Sol de América22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de Belgrano VRExpected goals in this matchSol de América

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.75

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.24

Sol de América

0.75

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 65% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 53 away

1.11

creates per match

0.62

0.88

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.11

Sol de América

0.62

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.88

Sol de América

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Sol de América+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

Sol de América →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw

78%

Defensores de Belgrano VR or Sol de América

70%

Draw or Sol de América

52%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

22%

Sol de América wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

71%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

35%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

13%

Sol de América 1+ goals

53%

Sol de América 2+ goals

17%

Sol de América 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

68%

Sol de América (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 111 matches

Sol de América away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.11 + Sol de América defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sol de América attack 0.62 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

48%

level

30%

Sol de América scores more

22%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Mendoza← B. Di Martino

60'

R. Seratto← M. Jaime

66'

G. Giraudo Lucca← M. Giménez

67'

S. Olano← L. Pérez

76'

R. Flumian← L. Campero

76'

M. Giménez← J. Romero

78'

T. Pennesi← M. Machado

78'

J. Bassani← J. Camaño

78'

N. Bustos← J. Kruger

Defensores

Sol

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Iturrería

60'▲R. Seratto←▼M. Jaime

67'▲S. Olano←▼L. Pérez

78'▲T. Pennesi←▼M. Machado

78'▲J. Bassani←▼J. Camaño

78'▲N. Bustos←▼J. Kruger

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

SerattoOlanoPennesiBassaniBustos

Manager: A. Paredes

46'▲F. Mendoza←▼B. Di Martino

66'▲G. Giraudo Lucca←▼M. Giménez

76'▲R. Flumian←▼L. Campero

76'▲M. Giménez←▼J. Romero

Sol de América substitutes

MendozaLuccaFlumianGiménez

Torneo Federal A: Defensores de Belgrano VR 0–0 Sol de América

Defensores de Belgrano VR and Sol de América drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Salomón Boeseldín in Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Sol de América — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Defensores de Belgrano VR 0–0 Sol de América