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Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Sansinena — Torneo Federal A 2018

Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VR
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sansinena
Sansinena
3/10/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Salomón Boeseldín (Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR45%
×Draw30%
Sansinena25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.20
Sansinena
0.82

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 46% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 85 away

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.11
Sansinena
0.76

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.89
Sansinena
1.28

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par
Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

Sansinena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw
75%
Defensores de Belgrano VR or Sansinena
70%
Draw or Sansinena
55%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+
20%
Sansinena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals
70%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals
34%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals
12%
Sansinena 1+ goals
56%
Sansinena 2+ goals
20%
Sansinena 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)
64%
Sansinena (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 110 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.11 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more
45%
level
30%
Sansinena scores more
25%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Defensores de Belgrano VR 0 – 0 Sansinena

Defensores de Belgrano VR and Sansinena drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Salomón Boeseldín (Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires).