Defensores de Belgrano VR 1–0 CDJU Gualeguaychu

Defensores de Belgrano VR

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CDJU Gualeguaychu

8/28/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 27Estadio Salomón Boeseldín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR50%

×Draw28%

CDJU Gualeguaychu22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de Belgrano VRExpected goals in this matchCDJU Gualeguaychu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.80

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.35

CDJU Gualeguaychu

0.80

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 69% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 56 away

1.11

creates per match

0.71

0.89

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.11

CDJU Gualeguaychu

0.71

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.89

CDJU Gualeguaychu

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw

78%

Defensores de Belgrano VR or CDJU Gualeguaychu

72%

Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu

50%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

24%

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

74%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

39%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

15%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals

55%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals

19%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

69%

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 110 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.11 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.71 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

50%

level

28%

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more

22%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff