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Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Talleres Córdoba Res. — Reserve League 2022

Defensa y Justicia Res.
Defensa y Justicia Res.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Talleres Córdoba Res.
Talleres Córdoba Res.
8/13/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Defensa y Justicia Res.44%
×Draw27%
Talleres Córdoba Res.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.36
Talleres Córdoba Res.
1.05

Defensa y Justicia Res. creates 30% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.47
Talleres Córdoba Res.
1.07

allows per match

Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.03
Talleres Córdoba Res.
1.25

finishing

Defensa y Justicia Res.+0.00on par
Talleres Córdoba Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa y Justicia Res. ↓

Talleres Córdoba Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Defensa y Justicia Res. or draw
71%
Defensa y Justicia Res. or Talleres Córdoba Res.
73%
Draw or Talleres Córdoba Res.
56%

Winning margin

Defensa y Justicia Res. wins by 2+
21%
Talleres Córdoba Res. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Defensa y Justicia Res. 1+ goals
74%
Defensa y Justicia Res. 2+ goals
39%
Defensa y Justicia Res. 3+ goals
16%
Talleres Córdoba Res. 1+ goals
65%
Talleres Córdoba Res. 2+ goals
28%
Talleres Córdoba Res. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Defensa y Justicia Res. (draw refunded)
60%
Talleres Córdoba Res. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa y Justicia Res. at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Talleres Córdoba Res. away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa y Justicia Res. attack 1.47 + Talleres Córdoba Res. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Talleres Córdoba Res. attack 1.07 + Defensa y Justicia Res. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Defensa y Justicia Res. scores more
44%
level
27%
Talleres Córdoba Res. scores more
29%

Defensa y Justicia Res. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Defensa y Justicia Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Talleres Córdoba Res.

Defensa y Justicia Res. beat Talleres Córdoba Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on August 13, 2024.