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Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Sarmiento Res. — Reserve League 2022

Defensa y Justicia Res.
Defensa y Justicia Res.
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sarmiento Res.
Sarmiento Res.
8/1/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Defensa y Justicia Res.50%
×Draw27%
Sarmiento Res.23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.44
Sarmiento Res.
0.88

Defensa y Justicia Res. creates 64% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.47
Sarmiento Res.
0.73

allows per match

Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.03
Sarmiento Res.
1.42

finishing

Defensa y Justicia Res.+0.00on par
Sarmiento Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa y Justicia Res. ↓

Sarmiento Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Defensa y Justicia Res. or draw
77%
Defensa y Justicia Res. or Sarmiento Res.
73%
Draw or Sarmiento Res.
50%

Winning margin

Defensa y Justicia Res. wins by 2+
25%
Sarmiento Res. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Defensa y Justicia Res. 1+ goals
76%
Defensa y Justicia Res. 2+ goals
42%
Defensa y Justicia Res. 3+ goals
18%
Sarmiento Res. 1+ goals
59%
Sarmiento Res. 2+ goals
22%
Sarmiento Res. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Defensa y Justicia Res. (draw refunded)
69%
Sarmiento Res. (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa y Justicia Res. at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Sarmiento Res. away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa y Justicia Res. attack 1.47 + Sarmiento Res. defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sarmiento Res. attack 0.73 + Defensa y Justicia Res. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Defensa y Justicia Res. scores more
50%
level
27%
Sarmiento Res. scores more
23%

Defensa y Justicia Res. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Defensa y Justicia Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Defensa y Justicia Res. 1 – 1 Sarmiento Res.

Defensa y Justicia Res. and Sarmiento Res. drew 1-1 in Reserve League on August 1, 2024.