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Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Godoy Cruz Res. — Reserve League 2022

Defensa y Justicia Res.
Defensa y Justicia Res.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Godoy Cruz Res.
Godoy Cruz Res.
6/20/2022Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Defensa y Justicia Res.54%
×Draw25%
Godoy Cruz Res.21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.62
Godoy Cruz Res.
0.92

Defensa y Justicia Res. creates 76% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.47
Godoy Cruz Res.
0.80

allows per match

Defensa y Justicia Res.
1.03
Godoy Cruz Res.
1.77

finishing

Defensa y Justicia Res.+0.00on par
Godoy Cruz Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa y Justicia Res. ↓

Godoy Cruz Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Defensa y Justicia Res. or draw
79%
Defensa y Justicia Res. or Godoy Cruz Res.
75%
Draw or Godoy Cruz Res.
46%

Winning margin

Defensa y Justicia Res. wins by 2+
29%
Godoy Cruz Res. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Defensa y Justicia Res. 1+ goals
80%
Defensa y Justicia Res. 2+ goals
48%
Defensa y Justicia Res. 3+ goals
22%
Godoy Cruz Res. 1+ goals
60%
Godoy Cruz Res. 2+ goals
23%
Godoy Cruz Res. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Defensa y Justicia Res. (draw refunded)
72%
Godoy Cruz Res. (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa y Justicia Res. at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Godoy Cruz Res. away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.77 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa y Justicia Res. attack 1.47 + Godoy Cruz Res. defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.62

Godoy Cruz Res. attack 0.80 + Defensa y Justicia Res. defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Defensa y Justicia Res. scores more
54%
level
25%
Godoy Cruz Res. scores more
21%

Defensa y Justicia Res. at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Defensa y Justicia Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Godoy Cruz Res.

Defensa y Justicia Res. beat Godoy Cruz Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on June 20, 2022.