Defence Force 3–4 Point Fortin: Result & Stats

Defence Force

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Point Fortin

K. Thomas 83'

M. Woo Ling 30' (pen)

S. Holder 25'

A. Etienne 85'

E. Kezar 47', 42', 8'

3/17/2024

League #591 · Round 16Hasely Crawford Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Defence Force67%

×Draw17%

Point Fortin15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defence ForceExpected goals in this matchPoint Fortin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.14

Defence Force

2.54

Point Fortin

1.14

Defence Force creates 123% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

2.61

creates per match

1.27

1.00

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Defence Force

2.61

Point Fortin

1.27

allows per match

Defence Force

1.00

Point Fortin

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defence Force+0.00on par

Point Fortin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defence Force ↓

Point Fortin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Defence Force or draw

85%

Defence Force or Point Fortin

83%

Draw or Point Fortin

33%

Winning margin

Defence Force wins by 2+

45%

Point Fortin wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Defence Force 1+ goals

92%

Defence Force 2+ goals

72%

Defence Force 3+ goals

46%

Point Fortin 1+ goals

68%

Point Fortin 2+ goals

32%

Point Fortin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Defence Force (draw refunded)

81%

Point Fortin (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defence Force at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Point Fortin away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defence Force attack 2.61 + Point Fortin defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.54

Point Fortin attack 1.27 + Defence Force defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Defence Force scores more

67%

level

17%

Point Fortin scores more

15%

Defence Force at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

E. Kezar

25'

S. Holder

30'

M. Woo LingPenalty

42'

47'

83'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff