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Defence Force vs La Horquetta Rangers — League #591 2026

Defence Force
Defence Force
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
La Horquetta Rangers
La Horquetta Rangers
B. Sam 24'
K. Molino 4' (pen)
R. Williams 39'
I. Lee 36'
4/12/2025League #591League #591 · Round 15Arima Velodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Defence Force61%
×Draw20%
La Horquetta Rangers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defence Force
2.21
La Horquetta Rangers
1.15

Defence Force creates 92% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Defence Force
2.61
La Horquetta Rangers
1.30

allows per match

Defence Force
1.00
La Horquetta Rangers
1.80

finishing

Defence Force+0.00on par
La Horquetta Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defence Force ↓

La Horquetta Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Defence Force or draw
81%
Defence Force or La Horquetta Rangers
80%
Draw or La Horquetta Rangers
39%

Winning margin

Defence Force wins by 2+
38%
La Horquetta Rangers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Defence Force 1+ goals
89%
Defence Force 2+ goals
65%
Defence Force 3+ goals
38%
La Horquetta Rangers 1+ goals
68%
La Horquetta Rangers 2+ goals
32%
La Horquetta Rangers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Defence Force (draw refunded)
76%
La Horquetta Rangers (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defence Force at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

La Horquetta Rangers away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defence Force attack 2.61 + La Horquetta Rangers defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.21

La Horquetta Rangers attack 1.30 + Defence Force defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Defence Force scores more
61%
level
20%
La Horquetta Rangers scores more
19%

Defence Force at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
K. MolinoPenalty
24'
B. Sam
36'
I. Lee
39'
R. Williams
Defence
La
M. Gordon
Manager: M. Gordon
A. Streete
Manager: A. Streete

League #591: Defence Force 2–2 La Horquetta Rangers

Defence Force and La Horquetta Rangers drew 2-2 in League #591 on April 12, 2025.

Goals: K. Molino (4' pen), B. Sam (24'), I. Lee (36'), R. Williams (39').

The match was played at Arima Velodrome in Arima.