Defence Force 5–1 Cunupia: Result & Stats

Defence Force

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cunupia

C. Bailey 90+1'

K. Thomas 82'

K. Goddard 74'

M. Woo Ling 45+4'

S. Bertrand 18'

M. Huguens 44'

5/19/2024

League #591 · Round 22Larry Gomes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Defence Force77%

×Draw12%

Cunupia11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defence ForceExpected goals in this matchCunupia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.55

1.33

Defence Force

3.55

Cunupia

1.33

Defence Force creates 167% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 6 away

2.61

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Defence Force

2.61

Cunupia

1.67

allows per match

Defence Force

1.00

Cunupia

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defence Force+0.00on par

Cunupia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defence Force ↓

Cunupia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Defence Force or draw

89%

Defence Force or Cunupia

88%

Draw or Cunupia

23%

Winning margin

Defence Force wins by 2+

59%

Cunupia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Defence Force 1+ goals

97%

Defence Force 2+ goals

86%

Defence Force 3+ goals

67%

Cunupia 1+ goals

74%

Cunupia 2+ goals

38%

Cunupia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Defence Force (draw refunded)

88%

Cunupia (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defence Force at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Cunupia away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defence Force attack 2.61 + Cunupia defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.55

Cunupia attack 1.67 + Defence Force defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Defence Force scores more

77%

level

12%

Cunupia scores more

11%

Defence Force at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

44'

45+4'

74'

82'

90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff