Defence Force 3–0 Club Sando: Result & Stats

Defence Force

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Sando

5/10/2025

League #591 · Round 19Arima Velodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Defence Force42%

×Draw24%

Club Sando34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defence ForceExpected goals in this matchClub Sando

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.42

Defence Force

1.59

Club Sando

1.42

Defence Force creates 12% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

2.61

creates per match

1.83

1.00

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

Defence Force

2.61

Club Sando

1.83

allows per match

Defence Force

1.00

Club Sando

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defence Force+0.00on par

Club Sando+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defence Force ↓

Club Sando →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Defence Force or draw

66%

Defence Force or Club Sando

76%

Draw or Club Sando

58%

Winning margin

Defence Force wins by 2+

21%

Club Sando wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Defence Force 1+ goals

80%

Defence Force 2+ goals

47%

Defence Force 3+ goals

21%

Club Sando 1+ goals

76%

Club Sando 2+ goals

41%

Club Sando 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Defence Force (draw refunded)

55%

Club Sando (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defence Force at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Club Sando away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defence Force attack 2.61 + Club Sando defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.59

Club Sando attack 1.83 + Defence Force defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Defence Force scores more

42%

level

24%

Club Sando scores more

34%

Defence Force at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff