Defence Force 6–3 Athletic Club: Result & Stats

Defence Force

FT

6 – 3

HT: 4 – 3

Athletic Club

K. Molino 86' (pen), 30', 2'

I. Leacock 78'

K. Thomas 45+3'

S. Bertrand 21'

H. Beckles 23', 13'

N. Lewis 7'

1/4/2025

League #591 · Round 5La Horquetta Recreation Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Defence Force55%

×Draw21%

Athletic Club24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defence ForceExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.29

Defence Force

2.05

Athletic Club

1.29

Defence Force creates 59% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 14 away

2.61

creates per match

1.57

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Defence Force

2.61

Athletic Club

1.57

allows per match

Defence Force

1.00

Athletic Club

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defence Force+0.00on par

Athletic Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defence Force ↓

Athletic Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Defence Force or draw

76%

Defence Force or Athletic Club

79%

Draw or Athletic Club

45%

Winning margin

Defence Force wins by 2+

32%

Athletic Club wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Defence Force 1+ goals

87%

Defence Force 2+ goals

61%

Defence Force 3+ goals

33%

Athletic Club 1+ goals

72%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

37%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Defence Force (draw refunded)

70%

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defence Force at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Athletic Club away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defence Force attack 2.61 + Athletic Club defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Athletic Club attack 1.57 + Defence Force defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Defence Force scores more

55%

level

21%

Athletic Club scores more

24%

Defence Force at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Defence Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

7'

13'

21'

23'

30'

45+3'

78'

86'

K. MolinoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff