Def. de Pronunciamiento 1–0 Union Sunchales

Def. de Pronunciamiento

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Sunchales

5/7/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 9Estadio Delio Esteban Cardozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento49%

×Draw27%

Union Sunchales24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Def. de PronunciamientoExpected goals in this matchUnion Sunchales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.90

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.42

Union Sunchales

0.90

Def. de Pronunciamiento creates 58% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

1.19

creates per match

0.78

1.02

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.19

Union Sunchales

0.78

allows per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.02

Union Sunchales

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par

Union Sunchales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Def. de Pronunciamiento ↓

Union Sunchales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Def. de Pronunciamiento or draw

76%

Def. de Pronunciamiento or Union Sunchales

73%

Draw or Union Sunchales

51%

Winning margin

Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+

24%

Union Sunchales wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals

76%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals

41%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals

17%

Union Sunchales 1+ goals

59%

Union Sunchales 2+ goals

23%

Union Sunchales 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)

67%

Union Sunchales (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Def. de Pronunciamiento at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 85 matches

Union Sunchales away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 1.19 + Union Sunchales defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Union Sunchales attack 0.78 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more

49%

level

27%

Union Sunchales scores more

24%

Def. de Pronunciamiento at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Def. de Pronunciamiento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff