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Def. de Pronunciamiento vs Independiente De Chivilcoy — Torneo Federal A 2018

Def. de Pronunciamiento
Def. de Pronunciamiento
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente De Chivilcoy
Independiente De Chivilcoy
10/1/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group 3 - 33Estadio Delio Esteban Cardozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento41%
×Draw31%
Independiente De Chivilcoy28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Def. de Pronunciamiento
1.10
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.84

Def. de Pronunciamiento creates 31% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 87 away

creates per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento
1.19
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.67

allows per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento
1.02
Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.01

finishing

Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par
Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Def. de Pronunciamiento ↓

Independiente De Chivilcoy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Def. de Pronunciamiento or draw
72%
Def. de Pronunciamiento or Independiente De Chivilcoy
69%
Draw or Independiente De Chivilcoy
59%

Winning margin

Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+
17%
Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals
67%
Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals
30%
Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals
10%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals
57%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals
21%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)
60%
Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Def. de Pronunciamiento at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 85 matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.01 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 1.19 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 0.67 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more
41%
level
31%
Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more
28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Def. de Pronunciamiento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1 – 0 Independiente De Chivilcoy

Def. de Pronunciamiento beat Independiente De Chivilcoy 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Delio Esteban Cardozo in Pronunciamiento, Provincia de Entre Ríos.