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Dedza Dynamos vs Songwe Border United — Super League 2026

Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Songwe Border United
Songwe Border United
6/15/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Dedza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dedza Dynamos75%
×Draw18%
Songwe Border United7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dedza Dynamos
2.00
Songwe Border United
0.41

Dedza Dynamos creates 388% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos
1.08
Songwe Border United
0.13

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos
0.70
Songwe Border United
2.93

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par
Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

Songwe Border United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw
93%
Dedza Dynamos or Songwe Border United
82%
Draw or Songwe Border United
25%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
49%
Songwe Border United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
86%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
59%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
32%
Songwe Border United 1+ goals
34%
Songwe Border United 2+ goals
6%
Songwe Border United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
92%
Songwe Border United (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more
75%
level
18%
Songwe Border United scores more
7%

Dedza Dynamos at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dedza Dynamos vs Songwe Border United

Dedza Dynamos beat Songwe Border United 3-0 in Super League on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Dedza Stadium in Dedza.