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Dedza Dynamos vs Sable Farming — Super League 2026

Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sable Farming
Sable Farming
6/22/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Balaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dedza Dynamos53%
×Draw29%
Sable Farming19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dedza Dynamos
1.31
Sable Farming
0.65

Dedza Dynamos creates 102% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos
1.08
Sable Farming
0.60

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos
0.70
Sable Farming
1.53

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par
Sable Farming+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

Sable Farming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw
81%
Dedza Dynamos or Sable Farming
71%
Draw or Sable Farming
47%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
25%
Sable Farming wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
73%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
38%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
14%
Sable Farming 1+ goals
48%
Sable Farming 2+ goals
14%
Sable Farming 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
74%
Sable Farming (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

Sable Farming away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + Sable Farming defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sable Farming attack 0.60 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more
53%
level
29%
Sable Farming scores more
19%

Dedza Dynamos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dedza Dynamos 2–1 Sable Farming

Dedza Dynamos beat Sable Farming 2-1 in Super League on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Balaka Stadium in Balaka.