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Dedza Dynamos vs Mighty Tigers — Super League 2026

Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
5/28/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Dedza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dedza Dynamos49%
×Draw31%
Mighty Tigers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dedza Dynamos
1.16
Mighty Tigers
0.61

Dedza Dynamos creates 90% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 76 away

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos
1.08
Mighty Tigers
0.53

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos
0.70
Mighty Tigers
1.24

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par
Mighty Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

Mighty Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw
81%
Dedza Dynamos or Mighty Tigers
69%
Draw or Mighty Tigers
51%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
22%
Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
69%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
32%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
11%
Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
46%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
13%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
72%
Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

Mighty Tigers away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + Mighty Tigers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mighty Tigers attack 0.53 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more
49%
level
31%
Mighty Tigers scores more
19%

Dedza Dynamos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dedza Dynamos 1–1 Mighty Tigers

Dedza Dynamos and Mighty Tigers drew 1-1 in Super League on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Dedza Stadium in Dedza.