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Dedza Dynamos vs Karonga United — Super League 2026

Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Karonga United
Karonga United
9/27/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Dedza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dedza Dynamos49%
×Draw29%
Karonga United22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dedza Dynamos
1.26
Karonga United
0.74

Dedza Dynamos creates 70% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 82 away

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos
1.08
Karonga United
0.78

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos
0.70
Karonga United
1.44

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par
Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

Karonga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw
78%
Dedza Dynamos or Karonga United
71%
Draw or Karonga United
51%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
22%
Karonga United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
72%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
36%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
13%
Karonga United 1+ goals
52%
Karonga United 2+ goals
17%
Karonga United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
69%
Karonga United (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more
49%
level
29%
Karonga United scores more
22%

Dedza Dynamos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dedza Dynamos 2–2 Karonga United

Dedza Dynamos and Karonga United drew 2-2 in Super League on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Dedza Stadium in Dedza.