Dedza Dynamos 0–0 Chitipa United: Result & Stats

Dedza Dynamos

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chitipa United

5/19/2024

Super League · Round 6Dedza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dedza Dynamos54%

×Draw29%

Chitipa United17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dedza DynamosExpected goals in this matchChitipa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.59

Dedza Dynamos

1.31

Chitipa United

0.59

Dedza Dynamos creates 122% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

1.08

creates per match

0.48

0.70

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Dedza Dynamos

1.08

Chitipa United

0.48

allows per match

Dedza Dynamos

0.70

Chitipa United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dedza Dynamos ↓

Chitipa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Dedza Dynamos or draw

83%

Dedza Dynamos or Chitipa United

71%

Draw or Chitipa United

46%

Winning margin

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+

26%

Chitipa United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals

73%

Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals

38%

Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals

14%

Chitipa United 1+ goals

45%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

12%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)

76%

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dedza Dynamos at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.70 · 64 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dedza Dynamos attack 1.08 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Dedza Dynamos defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dedza Dynamos scores more

54%

level

29%

Chitipa United scores more

17%

Dedza Dynamos at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff