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Dečić vs Rudar Velenje — First League 2019

Dečić
Dečić
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
9/20/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Stadion Tuško Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Dečić52%
×Draw25%
Rudar Velenje23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dečić
1.58
Rudar Velenje
0.95

Dečić creates 66% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 90 away

creates per match

Dečić
1.41
Rudar Velenje
0.86

allows per match

Dečić
1.04
Rudar Velenje
1.76

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par
Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Rudar Velenje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dečić or draw
77%
Dečić or Rudar Velenje
75%
Draw or Rudar Velenje
48%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+
27%
Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals
79%
Dečić 2+ goals
47%
Dečić 3+ goals
21%
Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
61%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
25%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)
70%
Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 108 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.41 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Rudar Velenje attack 0.86 + Dečić defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dečić scores more
52%
level
25%
Rudar Velenje scores more
23%

Dečić at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dečić vs Rudar Velenje

Dečić beat Rudar Velenje 4-1 in First League on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Tuško Polje in Tuzi.