Dečić 0–2 Rapid Vienna: Result & Stats

Dečić

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Rapid Vienna

M. Seidl 40' (pen)

J. Horn 17'

7/24/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundTusko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dečić31%

×Draw28%

Rapid Vienna42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DečićExpected goals in this matchRapid Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.30

Dečić

1.08

Rapid Vienna

1.30

Rapid Vienna creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

0.67

creates per match

1.44

1.17

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dečić

0.67

Rapid Vienna

1.44

allows per match

Dečić

1.17

Rapid Vienna

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Rapid Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dečić or draw

58%

Dečić or Rapid Vienna

72%

Draw or Rapid Vienna

69%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+

12%

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals

66%

Dečić 2+ goals

29%

Dečić 3+ goals

10%

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals

73%

Rapid Vienna 2+ goals

37%

Rapid Vienna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)

43%

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 0.67 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Rapid Vienna attack 1.44 + Dečić defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dečić scores more

31%

level

28%

Rapid Vienna scores more

42%

Rapid Vienna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rapid Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

J. Horn

Rapid Vienna · D

8.7

Match Events

17'

J. Horn↳ A. Radulovic

18'

Petar Sekulović

40'

M. SeidlPenalty

42'

Vuk Striković

44'

Stefan Golubović

46'

I. Ndiaye← B. Radusinovic

59'

E. Kara← J. Antiste

59'

L. Schaub← P. Dahl

59'

J. Auer← J. Horn

60'

Ercan Kara

63'

P. Ljuljdjuraj← P. Pavlicevic

63'

M. Bozanovic← V. Strikovic

76'

D. Bozovic← A. Bajovic

76'

I. Camaj← P. Sekulovic

77'

Andrija Radulović

79'

D. Weixelbraun← A. Radulovic

83'

B. Bolla← F. Demir

89'

Claudy Mbuyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DečićRapid

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots11

7Corners10

13Fouls24

Shots

6Total Shots11

1On Target3

2Off Target4

3Blocked4

4Inside Box4

2Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

357Total Passes385

271Accurate Passes312

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls24

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2