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Dečić vs Petrovac — First League 2019

Dečić
Dečić
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Petrovac
Petrovac
2/25/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion FK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Dečić44%
×Draw27%
Petrovac29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dečić
1.39
Petrovac
1.08

Dečić creates 29% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 125 away

creates per match

Dečić
1.41
Petrovac
1.11

allows per match

Dečić
1.04
Petrovac
1.37

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par
Petrovac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Petrovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dečić or draw
71%
Dečić or Petrovac
73%
Draw or Petrovac
56%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+
21%
Petrovac wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals
75%
Dečić 2+ goals
40%
Dečić 3+ goals
16%
Petrovac 1+ goals
66%
Petrovac 2+ goals
29%
Petrovac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)
60%
Petrovac (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 108 matches

Petrovac away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.41 + Petrovac defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Petrovac attack 1.11 + Dečić defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dečić scores more
44%
level
27%
Petrovac scores more
29%

Dečić at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dečić vs Petrovac

Dečić and Petrovac drew 1-1 in First League on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost in Podgorica.