Dečić 0–0 Jezero: Result & Stats | First League

Dečić

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jezero

11/11/2023

First League · Round 16Stadion FK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Dečić45%

×Draw28%

Jezero28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DečićExpected goals in this matchJezero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.98

Dečić

1.33

Jezero

0.98

Dečić creates 36% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 111 away

1.41

creates per match

0.91

1.04

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dečić

1.41

Jezero

0.91

allows per match

Dečić

1.04

Jezero

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par

Jezero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Jezero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dečić or draw

72%

Dečić or Jezero

72%

Draw or Jezero

55%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+

21%

Jezero wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals

74%

Dečić 2+ goals

38%

Dečić 3+ goals

15%

Jezero 1+ goals

62%

Jezero 2+ goals

26%

Jezero 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)

62%

Jezero (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 108 matches

Jezero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.26 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.41 + Jezero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Jezero attack 0.91 + Dečić defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dečić scores more

45%

level

28%

Jezero scores more

28%

Dečić at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff