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Dečić vs Jedinstvo — First League 2019

Dečić
Dečić
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jedinstvo
Jedinstvo
5/14/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Stadion Tuško Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dečić49%
×Draw25%
Jedinstvo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dečić
1.63
Jedinstvo
1.11

Dečić creates 47% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 73 away

creates per match

Dečić
1.41
Jedinstvo
1.18

allows per match

Dečić
1.04
Jedinstvo
1.85

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par
Jedinstvo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Jedinstvo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dečić or draw
74%
Dečić or Jedinstvo
75%
Draw or Jedinstvo
51%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+
26%
Jedinstvo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals
80%
Dečić 2+ goals
48%
Dečić 3+ goals
22%
Jedinstvo 1+ goals
67%
Jedinstvo 2+ goals
30%
Jedinstvo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)
66%
Jedinstvo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 108 matches

Jedinstvo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.41 + Jedinstvo defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jedinstvo attack 1.18 + Dečić defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dečić scores more
49%
level
25%
Jedinstvo scores more
26%

Dečić at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dečić vs Jedinstvo

Dečić and Jedinstvo drew 2-2 in First League on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Tuško Polje in Tuzi.