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Debreceni VSC vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Debreceni VSC
Debreceni VSC
FT
1 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
1/11/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Titanic Sports Center - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Debreceni VSC38%
×Draw25%
Petrolul Ploiesti38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debreceni VSC
1.48
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Debreceni VSC
1.57
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.38

allows per match

Debreceni VSC
1.57
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.38

finishing

Debreceni VSC+0.00on par
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debreceni VSC ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Debreceni VSC or draw
62%
Debreceni VSC or Petrolul Ploiesti
75%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
62%

Winning margin

Debreceni VSC wins by 2+
18%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Debreceni VSC 1+ goals
77%
Debreceni VSC 2+ goals
43%
Debreceni VSC 3+ goals
19%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
77%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
43%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Debreceni VSC (draw refunded)
50%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debreceni VSC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debreceni VSC attack 1.57 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.38 + Debreceni VSC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Debreceni VSC scores more
38%
level
25%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
38%

Debreceni VSC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Debreceni VSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Debreceni VSC 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti

Debreceni VSC beat Petrolul Ploiesti 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2024.

The match was played at Titanic Sports Center - Field 1 in Belek.