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Debrecen II vs Tiszaújváros — NB III - Northeast 2019

Debrecen II
Debrecen II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
10/27/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 13Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Debrecen II48%
×Draw22%
Tiszaújváros29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debrecen II
1.88
Tiszaújváros
1.43

Debrecen II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

creates per match

Debrecen II
2.03
Tiszaújváros
1.48

allows per match

Debrecen II
1.38
Tiszaújváros
1.74

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par
Tiszaújváros+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Tiszaújváros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw
71%
Debrecen II or Tiszaújváros
78%
Draw or Tiszaújváros
52%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+
27%
Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals
85%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
56%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
29%
Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
76%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
42%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)
62%
Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Tiszaújváros away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.74 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tiszaújváros attack 1.48 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Debrecen II scores more
48%
level
22%
Tiszaújváros scores more
29%

Debrecen II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Debrecen II 0–3 Tiszaújváros

Tiszaújváros beat Debrecen II 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.