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Debrecen II vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Debrecen II
Debrecen II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
3/1/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 18Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Debrecen II57%
×Draw22%
Salgótarjáni BTC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debrecen II
1.97
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.12

Debrecen II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 49 away

creates per match

Debrecen II
2.03
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

Debrecen II
1.38
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw
79%
Debrecen II or Salgótarjáni BTC
78%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
43%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+
34%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals
86%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
58%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
31%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
67%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
31%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)
73%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.97

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Debrecen II scores more
57%
level
22%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
21%

Debrecen II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Debrecen II 2–0 Salgótarjáni BTC

Debrecen II beat Salgótarjáni BTC 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.