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Debrecen II vs Mátészalka — NB III - Northeast 2019

Debrecen II
Debrecen II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mátészalka
Mátészalka
9/29/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 9Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Debrecen II56%
×Draw22%
Mátészalka23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debrecen II
1.98
Mátészalka
1.19

Debrecen II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

creates per match

Debrecen II
2.03
Mátészalka
1.00

allows per match

Debrecen II
1.38
Mátészalka
1.93

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par
Mátészalka+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Mátészalka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw
77%
Debrecen II or Mátészalka
78%
Draw or Mátészalka
44%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+
33%
Mátészalka wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals
86%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
59%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
31%
Mátészalka 1+ goals
70%
Mátészalka 2+ goals
33%
Mátészalka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)
71%
Mátészalka (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Mátészalka away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Mátészalka defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.98

Mátészalka attack 1.00 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Debrecen II scores more
56%
level
22%
Mátészalka scores more
23%

Debrecen II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Debrecen II 2–1 Mátészalka

Debrecen II beat Mátészalka 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.